Government of Canada bond yields, which are the basis for fixed mortgage rates, are continuing their downward path. The yields are slowly breaching the previous lows from 2022 and 2023. Investors and their trading software use previous high and low points in charts as trading signals to either take profits or stop losses. Due to this, when the yields hit previous highs and lows, they often stall or breifly go in the opposite direction as investors adjust their positions.
As we can see in the chart of the 5 year Government of Canada bond yield, which is the basis for 5 year fixed Canadian mortgage rates, the yield has just cleared a previous low, and has 2 more major previous lows to clear. Once these 2 lows have been cleared, based on the chart pattern, we should see a more rapid decrease.
Sept. 4, 2024 - The Bank of Canada Lowers Key Interest Rate
As expected, the Bank of Canada has further reduced the key interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%), bringing the Prime Rate which variable rates are based on down by 25 basis points as well.
August 20, 2024 - Inflation Falls to 2.50%
Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 2.50% in July, reaching it's lowest level since 2021.
Inflation on shelter prices (rent and mortgage payments) are still a alarmingly high. As rates fall, mortgage costs will fall as well, however it is unlikely that monthly rental amounts will go down, placing continued financial pressure on renters.
2024
January 24, 2024 - no change
March 6, 2024 - no change
April 10, 2024 - no change
June 5, 2024 - decrease of 0.25%
July 24, 2024 - decrease of 0.25%
September 4, 2024 - decrease of 0.25%
October 23. 2024 - TBD
December 11, 2024 - TBD
2023
January 25, 2023 - + 0.25%
March 8, 2023 - no change
April 12, 2023 - no change
June 7, 2023 - + 0.25%
July 12, 2023 + 0.25%
September 6, 2023 - no change
October 25, 2023 - no change
December 6, 2023 - no change
2022
January 26, 2022 - no change
March 2, 2022 - + 0.25%
April 13, 2022 - + 0.50%
June 1, 2022 - + 0.50%
July 13, 2022 - + 1.00%
Sept 7, 2022 - +0.75%
(unscheduled increase)
October 26, 2022 - + 0.50%
December 7, 2022 + 0.50%
2021
January 20, 2021 - no change
March 10, 2021 - no change
April 21, 2021 - no change
May 27, 2021 - no change
June 9, 2021 - no change
July 14, 2021 - no change
September 8, 2021 - no change
October 27, 2021 - no change
December 8, 2021 - no change
2020
January 22, 2020 -- no change
March 4, 2020 -- decrease of 0.50%
March 16, 2020 -- decrease of 0.50%
(emergency rate cut)
March 27, 2020 -- decrease of 0.50%
(emergency rate cut)
April 15, 2020 -- no change
June 3, 2020 -- no change
July 15, 2020 -- no change
September 9, 2020 -- no change
October 28, 2020 -- no change
December 9, 2020 -- no change
2019
January 9, 2019 -- no change
March 6, 2019 -- no change
April 24, 2019 -- no change
May 29, 2019 -- no change
July 10, 2019 -- no change
September 4, 2019 -- no change
October 30, 2019 -- no change
December 4, 2019 -- no change
2018
December 5, 2018 -- no change
October 24, 2018 -- increase of 0.25%
September 5, 2018 -- no change
July 11, 2018 -- increase of 0.25%
May 3, 2018 -- no change
April 18, 2018 -- no change
March 7, 2018 -- no change
January 17, 2018 -- increase of 0.25%